Trade, uneven development and people in motion: Used territories and the initial spread of COVID-19 in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2021.101161Get rights and content
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Highlights

COVID-19 spread across Mesoamerica and the Caribbean has been uneven.

We study if the uneven spread can be explained by social scientific theory.

We examine theories of human development, uneven development and Santos' used territories.

We used econometric modeling and ordination techniques.

We found that used territories alongside uneven development indicators can explain COVID-19 spread.

Abstract

Mesoamerica and the Caribbean form a region comprised by middle- and low-income countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic differently. Here, we ask whether the spread of COVID-19, measured using early epidemic growth rates (r), reproduction numbers (Rt), accumulated cases, and deaths, is influenced by how the ‘used territories’ across the regions have been differently shaped by uneven development, human movement and trade differences. Using an econometric approach, we found that trade openness increased cases and deaths, while the number of international cities connected at main airports increased r, cases and deaths. Similarly, increases in concentration of imports, a sign of uneven development, coincided with increases in early epidemic growth and deaths. These results suggest that countries whose used territory was defined by a less uneven development were less likely to show exacerbated COVID-19 patterns of transmission. Health outcomes were worst in more trade-dependent countries, even after controlling for the impact of transmission prevention and mitigation policies, highlighting how structural effects of economic integration in used territories were associated with the initial COVID-19 spread in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean.

Keywords

Delinking
Free trade
Pandemic spread
Relational geographies
Equity in health

Dr. Luis Fernando Chaves (Ph.D., M. Sc., Lic.) is a disease ecologist interested on the linkages between uneven development and disease emergence and transmission. Most of his work has been focused on vector-borne diseases.

Dr. Mariel Dalmi Friberg (Ph.D., B. Eng.) is an environmental engineer interested in modeling, big data analytics and remote sensing applied to air quality, wildfires and global health problems.

Ms. Lisbeth Amarilis Hurtado (M.S., Lic.) is a statistician working on infectious disease epidemiology.

Dr. Rodrigo Marín Rodríguez (M.D., M.P.H.) was the chair of epidemic surveillance in Costa Rica during the first months of the pandemic and currently chairs the Costa Rican national program for vector control.

Prof. David O'Sullivan (Ph.D., M.Sc., B.A./M.A.) is a geographer interested in complexity, spatial modeling and geographical information science (GIS).

Prof. Luke Bergman (Ph.D., M.A., B.S.) is a geographer interested in critical-computational and social-theoretic geographies. He currently holds the Canada Research Chair in GIS, Geospatial Big Data and Digital Geohumanities.