A socio-economic and environmental vulnerability assessment model with causal relationships in electric power supply chains

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2021.101156Get rights and content


The electric power industry is uniquely vulnerable to natural and human-made risks.

We propose an environmental vulnerability assessment model for the electric power supply chains.

A neutrosophic revised-DEMATEL method analyze the causal relations among the energy risks.

We introduce a hesitant expert selection model for expert selection and weight determination.

The most critical risks are natural disasters, climate change, industrial, affordability, political, and terrorism.


The electric power industry is uniquely vulnerable to natural and human-made risks such as natural disasters, climate change, and cybersecurity. This study proposes a vulnerability assessment framework to identify and assess the risks associated with the electric power supply chain in the United Kingdom and study the causal relationship among them with the neutrosophic revised decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (NR-DEMATEL) method. We further introduce a novel hesitant expert selection model (HESM) to assist decision-makers with expert selection and weight determination. We present a case study in the United Kingdom power supply chain to demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed method in this study. This is the first comprehensive risk interdependence analysis of the United Kingdom's power supply chain. The findings reveal natural disasters and climate change are the most crucial risks followed by industrial action, affordability, political instability, and sabotage/terrorism.


Vulnerability assessment
Causal relationship
Environmental economics
Power supply chain
Neutrosophic set theory

Amin Vafadarnikjoo holds a BSc in Industrial Engineering, an MSc in Industrial Management-Operations Research, and Ph.D. in Management Research. He is currently working as a Post-Doctoral researcher (Research Associate) in the Operations and Supply Chain Management group at the department of Operations, Technology, Events, and Hospitality Management (OTEHM) at Manchester Metropolitan University Business School. His research contributed to business and engineering realms in various contexts such as supply chain risk management, green supply chain management, closed-loop supply chain, logistics, healthcare, energy, construction, insurance, and sustainability. He has published many peer-reviewed journal articles and contributed to many conference papers. His journal articles have been published in Annals of Operations Research (ANOR), Expert Systems with Applications (ESWA), Applied Soft Computing (ASOC), Industrial Management & Data Systems (IMDS), International Journal of Operational Research (IJOR), Sustainability, Journal of Cleaner Production (JCLP), Measurement, and Mathematical Problems in Engineering.

Madjid Tavana is Professor and Distinguished Chair of Business Analytics at La Salle University, where he serves as Chairman of the Business Systems and Analytics Department. He also holds an Honorary Professorship in Business Information Systems at the University of Paderborn in Germany. Dr. Tavana is Distinguished Research Fellow at the Kennedy Space Center, the Johnson Space Center, the Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center, and the Air Force Research Laboratory. He was recently honored with the prestigious Space Act Award by NASA. He holds an MBA, PMIS, and PhD in Management Information Systems and received his Post-Doctoral Diploma in Strategic Information Systems from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He has published 22 books and over 300 research papers in international scholarly academic journals. He is the Editor-in-Chief of Decision Analytics Journal, Healthcare Analytics, International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, International Journal of Management and Decision Making, International Journal of Communication Networks and Distributed Systems, and International Journal of Knowledge Engineering and Data Mining.

Konstantinos Chalvatzis has been with Norwich Business School since 2010. Since 2017 he has been Professor of Sustainable Energy Business following roles as Associate and Assistant Professor in Business and Climate Change. He also supports the Social Sciences Faculty by being the Associate Dean for Innovation and chairs ClimateUEA, the university-wide initiative for climate research. His research focuses on energy sector innovation, including smart grid and storage and the role of energy in the sustainability performance of corporate organizations. His projects have so far received funding of over 23 m euros. In parallel to NBS, he has held visiting appointments at the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland, College Park, and the School of Economics, Management, and Statistics at the University of Bologna. His articles have been published in many journals such as Applied Energy, Journal of Cleaner Production, Business Strategy and the Environment, Sustainability, Renewable, and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Environmental Science & Policy, Technological Forecasting, and Social Change, Fuel, Energy Procedia, European Management Review and Annals of Operations Research.

Tiago Botelho joined Norwich Business School as a Lecturer in Business Strategy in August 2015. Previously he held teaching positions at the University of Glasgow, University of Strathclyde, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, and Piaget Institute. He holds a BSc degree in Economics from the Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa (Lisbon, Portugal) and a Masters (MSc) degree in Finance and Business Economics from Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). He also holds a PhD in Management at the University of Glasgow on business angel investing. Tiago has published in several academic journals: International Small Business Journal, Small Business Economics, Socio-Economic Review, Annals of Operations Research, Venture Capital: An International Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Strategic Change, and European Planning Studies.

View full text