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Chapter 1 - Overview
Pages 1-8 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 2 - Uncertainty
Pages 9-36 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 3 - Robustness and Opportuneness
Pages 37-114 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 4 - Value Judgments
Pages 115-128 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 5 - Antagonistic and Sympathetic Immunities
Pages 129-147 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 6 - Gambling and Risk Sensitivity
Pages 149-183 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 7 - Value of Information
Pages 185-205 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 8 - Learning
Pages 207-230 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 9 - Coherent Uncertainties and Consensus
Pages 231-248 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 10 - Hybrid Uncertainties
Pages 249-265 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 11 - Robust-Satisficing Behavior
Pages 267-295 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 12 - Retrospective Essay: Risk Assessment in Project Management
Pages 297-315 - Book chapterAbstract only
Chapter 13 - Implications of Info-Gap Uncertainty
Pages 317-346 - Book chapterNo access
References
Pages 347-356 - Book chapterNo access
Author Index
Pages 357-360 - Book chapterNo access
Subject Index
Pages 361-368
About the book
Description
Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts.
The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made.
This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models.
Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts.
The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made.
This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models.
Key Features
- New theory developed systematically
- Many examples from diverse disciplines
- Realistic representation of severe uncertainty
- Multi-faceted approach to risk
- Quantitative model-based decision theory
- New theory developed systematically
- Many examples from diverse disciplines
- Realistic representation of severe uncertainty
- Multi-faceted approach to risk
- Quantitative model-based decision theory
Details
ISBN
978-0-12-373552-2
Language
English
Published
2006
Copyright
Copyright © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
Imprint
Academic Press