Cover for Info-Gap Decision Theory

Info-Gap Decision Theory

Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty

Book • Second Edition2006

Authors:

Yakov Ben-Haim

Info-Gap Decision Theory

Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty

Book • Second Edition2006

 

Cover for Info-Gap Decision Theory

Authors:

Yakov Ben-Haim

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Book description

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess dec ... read full description

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  2. Book chapterAbstract only

    Chapter 1 - Overview

    Pages 1-8

  3. Book chapterAbstract only

    Chapter 2 - Uncertainty

    Pages 9-36

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    Chapter 3 - Robustness and Opportuneness

    Pages 37-114

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    Chapter 4 - Value Judgments

    Pages 115-128

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    Chapter 5 - Antagonistic and Sympathetic Immunities

    Pages 129-147

  7. Book chapterAbstract only

    Chapter 6 - Gambling and Risk Sensitivity

    Pages 149-183

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    Chapter 7 - Value of Information

    Pages 185-205

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    Chapter 8 - Learning

    Pages 207-230

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    Chapter 9 - Coherent Uncertainties and Consensus

    Pages 231-248

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    Chapter 10 - Hybrid Uncertainties

    Pages 249-265

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    Chapter 11 - Robust-Satisficing Behavior

    Pages 267-295

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    Chapter 12 - Retrospective Essay: Risk Assessment in Project Management

    Pages 297-315

  14. Book chapterAbstract only

    Chapter 13 - Implications of Info-Gap Uncertainty

    Pages 317-346

  15. Book chapterNo access

    References

    Pages 347-356

  16. Book chapterNo access

    Author Index

    Pages 357-360

  17. Book chapterNo access

    Subject Index

    Pages 361-368

About the book

Description

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts.

The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made.

This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models.

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts.

The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made.

This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models.

Key Features

  • New theory developed systematically
  • Many examples from diverse disciplines
  • Realistic representation of severe uncertainty
  • Multi-faceted approach to risk
  • Quantitative model-based decision theory
  • New theory developed systematically
  • Many examples from diverse disciplines
  • Realistic representation of severe uncertainty
  • Multi-faceted approach to risk
  • Quantitative model-based decision theory

Details

ISBN

978-0-12-373552-2

Language

English

Published

2006

Copyright

Copyright © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Imprint

Academic Press

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Authors

Yakov Ben-Haim

Technion-Israel Institute of Technology